The role of climatic variables for estimating probability of abundance of tree species

We analyzed the influence of climatic variables on the abundance of native tree species in 1,490 sampling plots systematically distributed in the Sierra Madre Occidental (state of Durango, Northwestern Mexico, 26°50′ and 22°17′N and 107°09′ and 102°30′W). We used the Weibull distribution and the finite Gaussian mixture model to study the climatic limits of 15 tree species in relation to seven variables thought to affect species abundance. We found that although they may occur in the same geographical region, some species display a wider range of ecological tolerance than others. Of the 15 species under study, only two (Quercus magnoliifolia and Q. arizonica) can be considered generalists in relation to some climatic variables, while the other 13 species behaved as specialists, implying a narrower range of distribution. The analytical techniques used enabled us to demarcate the zones in which the probability of abundance of each species is highest in relation to the climate variables considered. The findings could be used to help define climate for the 15 studied tree species of economic and ecological interest.