Innovative probabilistic prediction of accident occurrence

In the present paper, a safety evaluation index that determines the probability of accident occurrence of collision and stranding when the experiment is executed using a ship handling simulator is proposed, by noting Unsafe Ship Handling Situations. The number of Unsafe Ship Handling Situation was counted from the results of simulator trials, and the accident ratio was surveyed from the past records of sea casualties in the corresponding water area. The correlation between the appearance ratio of Unsafe Ship Handling Situation and the accident ratio showed reasonable coincidence with the order of 10-3. When port administrator tries to assess the effectiveness of safety improvement planning of port and harbour facilities, it can be said that this kind of probabilistic prediction model of accident occurrence is indispensable from the aspect of introducing cost effectiveness analysis.