Risk analysis of transport systems

It is assumed that the decision analysis is to be used to create rational premises of safe operation of controlled systems under uncertainty conditions. Diagnosis and Decision System is described on the system, which consists of the environment diagnostic facilities human being controlled system. The function of this system is to recognise dangerous operating situations and to generate a warning that some danger might occur as well as to create rational premises for prevention of incorrect decisions that are made during the operation of the controlled system. The processing of messages is carried out in compliance with the conventional Calculus of logic including the double negation law. The Diagnosis and Decision model presented in this paper is universal to a great extent. The block diagram of the diagnosis and decision system, tree of events in a DD system, message creation tables are presented in the paper. The block diagram of the diagnosis and decision system includes Environment, Controlled System, Human Being (Operator, Diagnostician), Diagnostic Facilities, Controlled System or Environment Output State, Hazard Symptom, Warning Signal, Operation Decision. Tree of Events includes occurrence of a controlled system inoperativity or operativity state, presence or absence of: a symptom, a signal; controlled system operation permitting or inhibiting decision, message identity or negation processing law. Message Creation Tables includes presence or absence of: a false symptom, a true symptom, a false alarm, a true ALARM; correct or incorrect: permission, controlled system operation inhibition.