GRAND ETHIOPIAN RENAISSANCE DAM AND THE RISK OF A WAR IN THE HORN OF AFRICA

In the climate change context, controlling water sources is one of the most explosive challenges to the stability of the security environment. In its quasitotality, human civilization was born in the basins of the great rivers, which provided humans with both the basic survival and development resources and natural protection against invasions. Such a watercourse is the Nile, in whose basin the great Egyptian, Nubian and Ethiopian civilizations were born. If, until recently, Egypt was the main beneficiary of the Nile's ”gifts“, Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project, still in construction on the Blue Nile, will radically change the status quo in region. How will GERD going to influence the regional hydro-policy? Is there any risk for a regional war outbreak? And, if the answer to the previous question is a positive one, what could be the impact of an Egyptian-Ethiopian conflict on regional security?