Comparison of six risk scores for the prediction of atrial fibrillation recurrence after cryoballoon-based ablation and development of a simplified method, the 0-1-2 PL score

Introduction: There are several prognostic scores for the assessment of risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence post ablation procedure. However, the use of these complex scores is difficult and the validation on different populations brought divergent results. Our goal was to compare the performance of these risk scores as the basis for the development of a new, simplified score based only on few universally predictive variables. Methods: All cryoballoon-based AF ablations performed in a single-center over a 10-year period were prospectively analyzed with regard to AF recurrence. This served to analyze the performance of APPLE, CAAP-AF, SCALE-CryoAF, MB-LATER, CHADS2, and CHA2DS2-VASc risk scores. Results: A total of 597 patients, mostly (78.1%) with paroxysmal AF were studied. Analyzed risk scores performed poorer than in the original publications because some risk factors were not predictive of AF recurrence. A simplified score named 0-1-2 PL, composed of just two universally predictive variables, AF type (1 point for Persistent AF) and LA dimension (1 point for LA size >45 mm) was developed. The 0-1-2 PL score stratified patients into low risk (0 points), intermediate risk (1 point), and high risk categories (2 points) which were related to a 2-year risk of AF recurrence of 21%, 37%, and 55%, respectively. This score had C-statistics (0.620) higher/comparable to other investigated much more complex scores. Conclusion: The assessment of risk of AF recurrence at the pre-ablation stage can be simplified without compromising accuracy. This could help to popularize risk assessment and standardization of AF management.