Analiza migracji ryzyka kredytowego w rolnictwie. Istota i dotychczasowe osiągnięcia

The analysis of migration of credit risk is a relatively new tool used in banking sector. It is based on a determined set of historical data which is then processed using the relevance statistical methods. These data are mainly of a quantitative character and are processed as average values under the assumption that some rules can be distinguished in the set in question. There is criticism towards this method concerning first of all the way in which data are treated, subjectivity of weighing the probabilities for shifting risk between different classes and the assumption of a general-scientific (monotetic) nature. An economic-psychological concept is being proposed as an alternative. However, it is at a very beginning stage of development. The analysis of credit risk migration in agriculture is rarely used at present and mainly in the developed countries. However, there are strong premises for making use of that tool in Poland as well. Banks gathering co-operative banks should do this first in close cooperation between partners since the undertaking is a big and complicated one.

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