Probabilistic methods of risk predictions and their pragmatic applications in life cycle of complex systems

The probabilistic methods of risk predictions, focused on the prognostic modeling of complex systems, and their pragmatic applications are proposed. They are based on an implementation of the proposed interconnected ideas about system analysis in life cycle. The approach includes description of the probabilistic models, optimization methods for rationale actions and incremental algorithms for solving the problems of supporting decisionmaking and rationale preventive actions in uncertainty conditions. A suitability of the proposed models and methods is demonstrated by examples which cover wide reliability and safety applications for some intellectual systems, enterprises of coal company, a floating oil and gas platform, a set of manufacturing processes of gas preparation equipment, the systems of oil&gas transportation and distribution. The approach means practically proactive commitment to excellence in uncertainty conditions.