Monte Carlo simulation for reliability assessment and optimization of an object subjected to varying operation conditions

This paper presents the computer simulation technique related to the reliability of an object under variable operation conditions. The considered object operation process is modelled using semi-Markov processes and its reliability is analysed by application of the conditional reliability functions in its different operation states. The backgrounds and procedures of the Monte Carlo simulation method application to an object at variable condition reliability analysis are proposed and applied to reliability evaluation of an exemplary object. Consequently, under arbitrarily assumed the parameters of this exemplary object operation process and its conditional reliability functions, using the proposed Monte Carlo simulation procedures, the transient probabilities of the exemplary object operation process at the particular operation states and its unconditional reliability function are determined. Further, the linear programming is introduced and proposed to reliability optimization of an object at variable operation conditions and the optimal transient probabilities of the exemplary object operation process at the particular operation states and its optimal unconditional reliability function are determined. Finally, some practical suggestions on the modification of the exemplary object operation process improving its reliability are proposed.