Modelling the seasonal dynamics of marine plankton in the southern Baltic Sea. Part 2. Numerical simulations

This work presents numerical simulations of the time-dependent vertical distributions of phytoplankton, microzooplankton, Pseudocalanus elongatus, early juvenile herring (Clupea harengus) and two nutrient components (total inorganic nitrogen and phosphate) using the 1D-Coupled Ecosystem Model with a high-resolution mesozooplankton (herbivorous copepods) module for P. elongatus and a simple prey-predator model for early juvenile herring C. harengus. This model was discussed in detail in Part 1. The calculations were done for one year (1999) for astation in the Gdańsk Deep (southern Baltic Sea). The results of the simulations were compared with the mean concentrations of nutrients, phytoplankton and zooplankton recorded in situ. The differences between the calculated and mean recorded values of nutrients and phytoplankton are c. 5-30% and depend on the month and depth for which the calculations were done. However, the calculated depth-integrated biomass of P. elongatus differs from the mean recorded value. This difference ranges from 30 to 50% at the end of May. The 1DCEM model can be used to forecast ecological changes in the southern Baltic Sea.