Nierzeczywiste aspekty opracowania rzeczywistej sytuacji skażeń promieniotwórczych

Effective operation in any area of human activity is strictly connected with making appropriate decisions. This connection is particularly strong in situations when the level of risk and uncertainty created by that situation is the highest. These categories perfectly refer to various combat operations which almost always show great changeability of situation and serious limitations in available information. One of the most difficult kinds of combat operations are the ones which are conducted in conditions when weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are used. The huge striking power along with mass spread of contamination, typical for this kind of weapon, causes that the problem of selecting appropriate methods assessing WMD strike effects will be extremely important. Recreating a real situation of contamination treated as the supreme form of forecasting contamination will take a spacial place in this process. It is conducted basing on data acquired during a detailed reconnaissance of contamination, which should result in ensuring a big credibility of performed calculations. Consequently, we are able to recreate a hypothetical image of cantamination in any time after the blast and use it to make difficult decisions. The article esassess the usefulness and reliability of this kind of forecasting. The idea and principles of recreated real contamination situation are discussed taking into consideration various limitations and conditions. Particular attention is drawn to these aspects of forecasting a real contamination situation which may be directly applied to concrete aims, connected with decision-making process. The availability of the usefulness of mehods applied so far has been verified and variants of more useful applications have been suggested.