Změny voličského chování ve volbách do krajských zastupitelstev 2012

This paper presents findings about changes in voting behaviour that occurred between elections into Regional Councils 2008 and 2012 in the Czech Republic. The analysis deals with comparison of real outcomes of elections 2012 and the outcomes of elections 2012 estimated by a statistical model called LOCCONTINGENCY. The estimation is based on regional structure of votes for political parties in the previous elections into Regional Councils 2008. The main objective of these analyses is to find out and to explain differences between reality and model estimation. The results help us explain the rise and decline of votes for political parties, especially for regional ones, between elections 2008 and 2012.