FIVE YEARS OF CHANGE IN BELARUS: PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRATISATION?

This MA thesis wants to cast a bit of light on the ongoing political of what has been defined a “black hole”, an unknown European neighbour, that is Belarus. In spite of the recent surge in publications on Belarusian Studies and their focus on the longevity of Minsk’s political regime, they came in a time in which Belarus started to be invested by what A. Wilson calls a “change of paradigm” in the politics of the country. The last five years have demonstrated that Belarus is capable of an unexpected dynamism both in foreign and internal policy, which have smashed some of the most spread stereotypes about the country: a pariah state totally controlled by Russia, a frozen autocratic country built on repression of any internal dialectic. however, it is mostly unknown the extent of the overall change and the prospects of democratisation opened by it, especially since Lukashenko has announced both a Constitutional reform and is stepping down from power after his next and last Presidential term. To do so, Linz and Stepan's (1996) theoretical framework is used to measure the changed in the so called five arenas of democratic consolidation (rule of law, bureaucracy, civil society, political society and economic society) and individuate what is the most likely transition path for the country and the main tasks for Belarusian democrats in the next future. Semi-structured interviews with experts and activists are used to add qualitative information difficult to obtain from official documents and academic literature. The thesis detects small and gradual changes in civil and political societies, which are on the overall kept "closed" and monopolized by the incumbent, an unchanged situation in rule of law and bureaucracy and fundamental changes in economic society, which are fertile with important political consequences for Belarus. Belarus is getting rid of the post-totalitarian features of the political regime, while retaining the authoritarian ones. The civilian nature of the political regime, the gradual socialization between elites and counter-elites, as well as the willingness of the authorities to proceed towards democratizing reforms, open the prospects of ruptura-pactada, Reforma-pactada transition path on the term, which is going to be in the hands of post-Lukashenko's authorities. Indeed, current reforms seem to lead to a competitive authoritarian regime hegemonised by the current pro-incumbent forces, which will be in charge of a further democratizing process. The major task for Belarusian democrats is working to make pressure on the authorities, through lobbying, public consultations and manifestations for a reform of the corporatist institutions of the country and for free and fair elections after the constitutional reform, while at the same time avoiding a destabilization of the country that could lead to a Russian intervention.

Belarus is getting rid of the post-totalitarian features of the political regime, while retaining the authoritarian ones. The civilian nature of the political regime, the gradual socialization between elites and counter-elites, as well as the willingness of the authorities to proceed towards democratizing reforms, open the prospects of ruptura-pactada, Reforma-pactada transition path on the term, which is going to be in the hands of post-Lukashenko's authorities. Indeed, current reforms seem to lead to a competitive authoritarian regime hegemonised by the current pro-incumbent forces, which will be in charge of a further democratizing process. The major task for Belarusian democrats is working to make pressure on the authorities, through lobbying, public consultations and manifestations for a reform of the corporatist institutions of the country and for free and fair elections after the constitutional reform, while at the same time avoiding a destabilization of the country that could lead to a Russian intervention.