Impact of positive illusions and experience on decision to invest in own new venture

Objectives. The objective of this study is threefold: 1) to examine the effect of positive illusions on risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 2) to examine the mediating role of risk attitudes on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision; 3) to examine the moderating effect of experience on the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Sample and setting. Research sample comprised 132 entrepreneurs aged between 19 and 63 (M = 40.6; SD = 10.8) owning small, medium and large-sized businesses.

Hypotheses. 1) Individuals exhibiting higher positive illusions (overconfidence, unrealistic optimism, illusion of control) would take higher risk manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 2) Risk attitudes will mediate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. 3) Experience will moderate the relationship between positive illusions and risk taking manifested in opportunity evaluation and investment decision. Statistical analysis and results. 1) Using simple linear regression it was found that only unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and illusion of control predicted risk taking manifested in investment decision. None of positive illusions explained opportunity evaluation. 2) Using PROCESS macro for mediation analysis it was found that domain-specific risk perception, rather than general risk tolerance, is statistically significant mediator of the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision. 3) Moderation analysis via PROCESS macro showed that only entrepreneurial experience moderates the relationship between unrealistic optimism for rare positive events and investment decision using own savings. The limitations concerning gender and domain specificity of methods are discussed in the study.