INVESTIGATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD TRAVEL & TOURISM INDUSTRY BY APPLYING THE SCENARIO METHOD

The existing experience of applying the scenario method in tourism as one of the group of the intuitive methods of prognostication is investigated. The major goal of the method is the elaboration of the so-called development scenarios on the basis of the past, present and future expected trends. The scenario method is applied within the framework of its second stage - one of the six factors (trends) of the international tourism development specifically 'The Travel & Tourism Industry Development' is studied. The tendencies and forms of the globalization manifestation (in the broad and narrow meanings) in the international tourism are determined; specifically the integration processes in the form of the capital concentration and cooperation are examined. The mini-scenarios of the development of the world Travel & Tourism Industry in the future are presented.