MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN POLAND: AN ATTEMPT AT QUANTIFICATION (Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania plodnosci w Polsce, Próba kwantyfikacji

In the paper, an attempt to quantify interrelationships between the period total fertility rate in Poland in the years 1970–2005 and socio-economic determinants has been undertaken. In that respect, several possible explanatory variables suggested in various theoretical explanations of the fertility decline have been referred to. The overview of the theories resulted in the list of potential variables to be included into a linear model with the TFR as a dependent variable. Data availability defines the final set of 20 potential explanatory variables to be used in the model. Due to the presence of strong multicollinearity, a stepwise regression was applied. That method was supplemented by economic monitoring to ensure a sound interpretability of outcomes. Consequently, the final model included only four variables that influenced on the total fertility rate in Poland over the period under study: inertia in fertility, real wages, one variable related to social inequality and one linked to the pension system (i.e. to the replacement rate and the coverage rate ). The final model exhibits desirable statistical and economic features, and has been used for some projection exercises.