MODELING OF EXPORTS FLOWS IN THE VISEGRAD SUB-REGION

This study investigates the determinants of the Visegrad Group (V-4) export performance with special attention to quantitative analysis of bilateral trade flows. Based on preliminary statistical analysis, a broad categorization of export directions for V-4 is introduced. Innovative application of the gravity model for international trade is applied to the various trade direction categories, revealing important results particularly in regards to the significance of inward FDI, the restrictive forces associated with the distance between markets, and the relative importance of estimates for aggregate supply and demand potentials. A new variable is introduced in this study to account for the fact that there is a new political border between Czech Republic and Slovakia. Evidence from this study suggests that the fact that these two now independent nations were unified until about 15 years ago remains a strong positive factor for the size of trade flows between them.