MEASURING PRICE RISK IN COMMODITY MARKETS

In the article concepts of price uncertainty and risk as well as econometric methods useful in measuring this type of risk are briefly discussed. Four the most frequently used approaches and related methods of measuring price risk in commodity markets were characterized and their potential application was empirically illustrated on the example of wheat market in Poland. Results of the analysis carried out showed that predictable and unpredictable components of the price series should be distinguished to properly evaluate real risk exposure. Some noticeable changes in the volatility of the wheat prices over the analyzed period indicate that exposure to the price risk in Polish wheat market after accession to the EU has increased.