A systematic simulating assessment within reach greenhouse gas target by reducing PM2.5 concentrations in China

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and governing pollutant emissions would cause real synergy. Therefore, China has proposed achieving the target of reducing fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) concentrations to 35 ug/m3 , as it pollutes the most. The prioritized purpose of this dissertation is aimed at constructing a comprehensive framework by integrating the PM₂.₅ target, influencing factors, and countermeasures together to shed some new light on the PM₂.₅ governing problem. A computable general equilibrium (CGE) model containing a pollution abatement block is first introduced. Accordingly, four different scenarios about the PM₂.₅ target implementation plan are designed for analyzing the impacts on China’s macroeconomics, energy demand, and environmental quality, and we establish a PM₂.₅ system dynamics model in the principle of system dynamics theory afterward. Subsequently, the model offers six various countermeasures in terms of declining the concentration of PM₂.₅ on the basis of the causality diagram. Consequently, the scenario analysis and system simulation results illustrate that the decline in PM₂.₅ concentration at annual average rates of 3.07%, 4.61%, and 1.53% from 2016 to 2020, 2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030 is significantly beneficial for achieving the PM₂.₅ target. Additionally, three effective countermeasures could be approximately reaching the PM₂.₅ concentration target in 2030.