Prognozy ruchu na miedzynarodowych trasach kolejowych przechodzacych przez Polske

Artykuł przedstawia sposób wykorzystania istniejących źródeł danych o ruchu przy obliczaniu prognoz przewozów pasażerskich i towarowych na trasach kolejowych. Omawia poszczególne etapy procesu prognozowania ruchu.

Estimating future passenger and cargo transport on major rail routes crossing Poland required that the model developed under the PHARE Programme be tailored to the types of transport data available today. Methods of using these sources, processing the information and developing a database are proposed. The grid model is also improved to present more detailed information based on a system of nodal points rather than on the structure of provinces (voivodships). This will make the existing information available for use. The calculations are a result of applying a number of assumptions mainly derived form previous studies, in particular from the PHARE project report. The main strategy is to use the demand elasticity model developed from passenger surveys. This model shows that a 10 per cent reduction of journey time may cause an increase in passenger numbers of 4.7 per cent. In conclusion, areas of further work are identified to establish, monitor and graphically present traffic matrix in varying time, typological and direction cross-sections.