Wplyw roznych scenariuszy polityki rolnej na mozliwosci rozwojowe gospodarstw rolniczych ze szczegolnym uwzglednieniem integracji z Unia Europejska [studium modelowe]

Impacts of different agricultural policy scenarios on farm development in a perspective of years 2002 and 2007 are discussed in the context of further EU integration. Four policy scenarios were considered: two of them based upon the Agenda 2000 proposals (with and without compensatory payments), complete liberalisation of trade and prices, and finally the scenario under which Poland would not join EU and existing agricultural policy is continued. In the study LP optimisation models were constructed for selected farm types. Arable, dairy, pig and mixed farms with the size over 15ha of agricultural land were considered. The highest financial results are generated under policy scenario based on the Agenda 2000 proposals. Ineligibility for compensatory payments (Agenda 2000 without EU payments) results in lowering farm incomes by 25-30%. Still, under this scenario the livestock farms achieve incomes exceeding 1996 base, whilst the arable farms generate incomes lower than initial, because of more favourable cereal prices height in 1996. Farms under liberal and ,,non-join EU" scenarios are less viable and their development possibilities are limited.