Simplified Risk Analysis of Tanker Collisions in the Gulf of Finland

Maritime traffic poses various risks in terms of human casualties, environmental pollution or loss of property. In particular, tankers pose a high environmental risk as they carry very large amounts of oil or more modest amounts of possibly highly toxic chemicals. In this paper, a simplified risk assessment meth-odology for spills from tankers is proposed for the Gulf of Finland, for tankers involved in a ship-ship collision. The method is placed in a wider risk assessment methodology, inspired by the Formal Safety Assess-ment (FSA) and determines the risk as a combination of probability of occurrence and severity of the consequences. The collision probability model is based on a time-domain micro simulation of maritime traf-fic, for which the input is obtained through a detailed analysis of data from the Automatic Identification System (AIS). In addition, an accident causation model, coupled to the output of the traffic simulation model is proposed to evaluate the risk reduction effect of the risk control options. Further development of the model is needed, but the modular nature of the model allows for continuous improvement of the modules and the ex-tension of the model to include more hazards or consequences, such that the effect of risk control options can be studied and recommendations made. This paper shows some preliminary results of some risk analysis blocks for tanker collisions in the Gulf of Finland.