Short-term forecasting of accidental oil spill movement in harbours

The general model of oil spill movement forecasting based on a probabilistic approach is proposed. A semi-Markov model of the process of changing hydro-meteorological conditions is constructed. The method of oil spill domain determination for various hydro-meteorological conditions is recommended. Moreover, Monte Carlo simulation procedure for predicting the oil spill domain movement is proposed. The procedure is practically applied for Gdynia and Karlskrona ports' water areas.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MEiN, umowa nr SONP/SP/546092/2022 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2022-2023).