Metodika prinatia resenia pri vybore optimal’noj sistemy razrabotki mestorozdenij v usloviah neopredelennosti i riska

The report presents the methodology of option choice far oil field development in the conditions of uncertainty and the risk, based on the methods of statistical analysis, analysis of efficiency indicators' sensitivity, scenarios method, imitating simulation on Monte Carlo method (Laplace, Wald, Savage, Gurvitz, Hodge—Lehmann criteria, etc.) and fuzzy logic theory of L. Zade. The probability account of geological and extracted reserves change, and also many other factors, allows to carry out the multilatexal analysis of а рrоblem that makes process of option choice most effective.