The application of probability density function in modeling of wind speed on the Polish Batlic Coast

The aim of the research was to identify the potential for the use of probability density functions (PDF) in modeling of near-surface wind speed. The approaches of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) are used in combination with 2-parametric Weibull distribution. The downscaling model was built using a diagnosed relationship between sea level pressure (SLP) patterns over Europe and the Northern Atlantic and estimated monthly values of Weibull parameters at 9 stations along the Polish Baltic Coast. The obtained scale (A) and shape (k) parameters make it possible to describe temporal variations of wind fields and their theoretical probability values. This may have further application in the modeling of extreme wind speeds for seasonal forecasting, climate prediction or in historical reconstructions. The model evaluation was done separately for the calibration (1971-2000) and validation periods (2001-2010). The scale parameter was reconstructed reasonably, while there were some problematic issues with the shape parameter, especially in the validation period. The quality of the developed models is generally higher for the winter season, due to larger SLP gradients, whereas the results for the spring and summer seasons were less satisfactory. Despite this, the 99th percentile of theoretical wind speeds are in most cases satisfactory, due to the lesser importance of the shape parameter for typical distributions in the analyzed region.