An unsupervised anomaly detection in electricity consumption using reinforcement learning and time series forest based framework

Anomaly detection (AD) plays a crucial role in time series applications, primarily because time series data is employed across real-world scenarios. Detecting anomalies poses significant challenges since anomalies take diverse forms making them hard to pinpoint accurately. Previous research has explored different AD models, making specific assumptions with varying sensitivity toward particular anomaly types. To address this issue, we propose a novel model selection for unsupervised AD using a combination of time series forest (TSF) and reinforcement learning (RL) approaches that dynamically chooses an AD technique. Our approach allows for effective AD without explicitly depending on ground truth labels that are often scarce and expensive to obtain. Results from the realtime series dataset demonstrate that the proposed model selection approach outperforms all other AD models in terms of the F1 score metric. For the synthetic dataset, our proposed model surpasses all other AD models except for KNN, with an impressive F1 score of 0.989. The proposed model selection framework also exceeded the performance of GPT-4 when prompted to act as an anomaly detector on the synthetic dataset. Exploring different reward functions revealed that the original reward function in our proposed AD model selection approach yielded the best overall scores. We evaluated the performance of the six AD models on an additional three datasets, having global, local, and clustered anomalies respectively, showing that each AD model exhibited distinct performance depending on the type of anomalies. This emphasizes the significance of our proposed AD model selection framework, maintaining high performance across all datasets, and showcasing superior performance across different anomaly types.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025).