Fuzzy–neuron Model of the Ship Propulsion Risk

A prediction model is presented of the ship propulsion risk, i.e. a risk of the consequences of loss of the ship propulsion capability. This is an expert model based on opinions elicited by the ship power plant operators. The risk level depends, among other things, on the reliability state of the ship propulsion sys-tem components. This state is defined by operators in a linguistic form. The formal risk model parameters are determined by means of a neural network. The model may be useful in the ship operation decision processes.