Fuzzy approach using experts’ psychological conditions to estimate the criteria importance for the assessment of innovative projects risk

The difficulty of innovation risk assessment makes it necessary to use a multi-criteria analysis. Innovative projects are related to unstructured problems and the uncertainty, therefore, the use of fuzzy logic in the innovation risk assessment is analyzed. This paper proposes a method of determining the weights of criteria in order to innovation risk assessment. The weights are determined by 5 general criteria and 14 detailed criteria of innovation risk assessment. The proposed method is an extension of the fuzzy AHP method. The extension consists in taking into consideration the group decision-making approach with experts’ psychological conditions. The groups of experts have been chosen based on an elaborated form. The form makes it possible to characterize the persons within the scope of different psychological conditions. The proposed method provides objective and rational decision-making. The paper presents also a comparison of results with the fuzzy AHP method without the group decision making. The weights obtained by the proposed method are more diversified and bring out the most important criteria.

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Opracowanie rekordu w ramach umowy 509/P-DUN/2018 ze środków MNiSW przeznaczonych na działalność upowszechniającą naukę (2018).