Research on Management Policy and National Real Estate Climate Index in China

Using ARIMA time series analysis method, this paper predicts NRECI from May to December 2011. Then detailed analysis is made of the NRECI trend and the major management policies introduced in corresponding periods. The results show that NRECI is closely related with management policy of real estate industry in China. The development trend of the NRECI from May to December 2011 indicates that the authorities should take moderate management measures to keep the stable trend sustained.

---

W artykule przedstawiono metodę obliczania iprzewidywnia współczynnika NRECI (National Real Estate Climate Index). Do tego celu wykorzystano metodę analizy szeregu ARIMA.