Badania wpływu czynników pogodowych na stopień inwazyjności patogenów grzybowych w środowisku na przykładzie pszenicy ozimej

Fungi diseases are the most serious threat to winter wheat crops in Poland causing losses of yield of up to 25%. Weather factors affect the types and intensity of disease outbreaks. The paper contains analysis of the impact of pre-onset as well as contemporaneous weather conditions such as temperature (both average and max/min), rainfall, and relative humidity on the frequency of infections caused by following pathogens: powdery mildew (Erysiph e graminis), septoria blotch (Mycosphaerella graminicola st. kon. Septoria tritici), glume blotch (Phaeosphaeria nodorum st. kon. Stagnospora nodorum , syn. Septoria nodorum), brown rust (Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici), eyespot (Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides), foot rot (Fusarium spp. and other). Several multiple stepwise (Backward Removal Method) regression models were estimated using linear functional form to examine how weather factors impact the wheat crop vulnerability to those pathogens. The results of this study contribute to our ability to forecast the magnitude and characteristics of disease outbreaks in the future based on observed meteorological data, thus enabling us to take optimal protective measures.