Forecasting future public transport mode choice behaviour of commuters in Bahrain using Logit and classification tree models: a comparative study

Global trade and social relationships are greatly facilitated by transportation. However, the majority of nations, including Bahrain, face substantial challenges with their transportation systems. For the development of technical solutions that can promote the progress of these transport systems, it is now crucial to have a complete understanding of travel demands and driver's characteristics. This paper aims to explore the influential factors concerning travel mode choice in Bahrain and utilize mode choice models to forecast the probable utilities of various future public transport modes. The study utilizes diverse, 3864 data records extracted from previous surveys as well as a recent one conducted within this research. Subsequently, using Minitab software, two types of mode choice models were built, namely the logit model and the classification tree model, focusing on modelling the future transportation system, considering potential public transport modes (Public Bus, Metro, and Tram). The analysis of the data identified trip cost as the top predictor, moreover, direct, and quick travel, accessibility, and convenience were also found to significantly influence the choice of travel mode in Bahrain. Additionally, the findings indicate that the metro is the preferred choice for future public transport, with a strong preference observed for a combination of metro and tram. The research also suggests, in terms of model performance, that when capturing more complex patterns, as in this study, the classification tree outperforms the multinomial Logit model. Overall, the research provides valuable insights into mode choice in Bahrain and highlights the important factors influencing commuting decisions. The results of this study can support the development of an efficient public transportation system that would satisfy the needs and preferences of commuters in Bahrain and ultimately lead to a sustainable and accessible transportation infrastructure in the country.