Modelling maritime critical infrastructure accident consequences with semi-Markov chain method

The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences consists of three particular models of semi-Markov processes such as: the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environmental threats coming from released chemicals that are a result of initiating events and the process of environmental degradation as a result of environmental threats. The general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences and procedure of its application to the maritime transport critical infrastructure understood as a network of ships operating at the sea waters is presented in the research. By using the statistical data coming from sea accidents reports, the general model is applied to the identification and prediction of the environmental degradation associated with ship accidents and chemical releases within the Baltic Sea. Moreover, the proposed model is applied to estimate the environmental losses associated with these accidents and the environmental degradation in the neighborhood area.