Jakościowa metoda badania konfliktów zbrojnych

The article presents a short characteristics of main (world) international situation monitoring and analysis centres (sore points and military conflicts including) and also exemplary scenarios of developing political military situation prepared by Rand Corporation with a detailed discussion of conclusions resulting from the scenario concerning the situation in Poland. On the background of these considerations, a concrete method of military conflicts qualitative evaluation worked out by Trevor Nevett Dupuy has been presented. The author’s original approach towards defining the relation of military parties potentials has been pointed out and on this basis showing a theoretical winner. Applying such an approach to a retrospective analysis of military conflicts and wars (with the lack of significant divergencies) gives an opportunity to apply the presented method in prognostic research, however, taking into consideration some limitations.