Factors influencing grounding probability in the Baltic Sea area – quantitative assessment

This paper presents the process of quantitative assessment of selected factors influencing the probability of grounding. All grounding accidents that occurred during one year (2013) in the Baltic Sea area were analysed. The research area was chosen because of very high traffic intensity and a large number of narrow passages that make it difficult for navigation. The research period was limited by the latest data reported by HELCOM up to the year 2013. The Method of Grounding Probability Coefficient (GPC) calculation is proposed to reach the assumed goal. Either internal factors such as the ships size and ship type or external factors such as time of day, wind force and season were taken into account. As a result the values of coefficients describing the impact of various factors on the probability are evaluated. This coefficients, taking into consideration coupling effect, can be used in future in the navigational safety simulation models based on the assumed value of accident probability.