Fiscal rules management in the EU: differences between fiscally sustainable and unsustainable countries

The paper examines fiscal sustainability in the European Union, focusing on the long-term cointegration relationship between government revenues and expenditures as a key indicator. Addressing the critical issue of fiscal heterogeneity among EU member states, the study examines how differences in fiscal sustainability impact macroeconomic stability and governance within the union. In the EU’s shared monetary framework, understanding fiscal sustainability at both union and member state level is essential for macroeconomic stability. First, using a cointegration analysis, the research assesses f iscal sustainability across EU countries from 1995 to 2021. The findings reveal significant disparities, with 14 member states demonstrating a strong cointegration relationship, indicating their fiscal sustainability, while 13 exhibit weaker evidence, highlighting ongoing challenges in achieving a fiscally sustainable environment. The paper further explores the role of fiscal rules in promoting fiscal discipline through panel data models. Results suggest that fiscal rules enhance fiscal discipline across the EU, with more pronounced effect in countries facing sustainability challenges. Further, in more fiscally stable economies, broader macroeconomic factors such as economic performance and income levels are found to play more important role in budget balance changes. The paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the effectiveness of fiscal rules and the future of fiscal governance in the EU, offering insights to strengthen long-term fiscal stability across member states.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa nr POPUL/SP/0154/2024/02 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki II" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki (2025)