Application of the logistic regression model to assess the risk of death in road traffic accidents in the Mazowieckie voivodeship

Mortality caused by road accidents is a significant problem for most countries, including Poland, where approximately 2,900 people die each year, and another 37,359 are injured. Research in this area has been conducted on a large scale. One of the most important elements is the evaluation of factors leading to fatalities in road accidents, which is also the goal of this article. The analysis was based on data on road accidents from the Mazowieckie Voivodeship, which is characterized by one of the highest mortality rates gathered for the period 2016-2018. Owing to the dichotomous form of the studied variable, logistic regression was used. Estimated model parameters and calculated odds ratios allowed to assess the effect of selected factors on road traffic mortality rate. As significant, the type of the perpetrator and the traffic participant, sex and age of the victim, road lighting, and the driver’s experience were selected. It was assessed that pedestrians are the group most exposed to death in a road accident, both as perpetrators and victims. It was also pointed out that the risk of death for women is 1.8 times higher than men. In addition, the effect of driving experience is also important, and the risk of death is 0.64 times lower for drivers with longer practice. It was also assessed that with each subsequent year of life, the risk of death in a road accident increased by 2%. Furthermore, according to incident site lighting, the study demonstrated that the risk of death was greatest when driving at night on an unlit road. The results obtained may support public safety and law enforcement authorities in carrying out preventive actions and also can be helpful in shaping the overall strategy on road safety.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2020).