Optimality of the auxiliary particle filter

In this article we study asymptotic properties of weighted samples produced by the auxiliary particle filter (APF) proposed by Pitt and Shephard [17]. Besides establishing a central limit theorem (CLT) for smoothed particle estimates, we also derive bounds on the Lp error and bias of the same for a finite particle sample size. By examining the recursive formula for the asymptotic variance of the CLT we identify first-stage importance weights for which the increase of asymptotic variance at a single iteration of the algorithm is minimal. In the light of these findings, we discuss and demonstrate on several examples how the APF algorithm can be improved.