Temperature trend analysis: a case study of Kabul, Afghanistan

Climate change is one of the most important problems significantly affecting the exosphere, both directly and indirectly. The impacts of climate change can be disastrous not only for the environment but also for the lives, safety, and property of major populations, particularly in Afghanistan. This study assesses the variability of temperature trends in Kabul, Afghanistan. The predictands, i.e., the daily observed temperature data, were collected from local organizations, and the predictors were gleaned from the outputs of global climate models (GCM) based on the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Two statistical downscaling models were used to simulate future climate conditions under three scenarios. Trend analysis was conducted by linear regression, and the performance of the two downscaling methods was checked by using measured indicators. The results revealed that temperature will increase from 2025 to 2100 relative to 1990-2020 under three model regional climate predictions (RCP). By 2100, the maximum temperature would increase by 1.8°C (7.7%), 2.5°C (10.3%), and 3.7°C (14.3%) according to RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Moreover, the annual average temperature for the period of 2025-2100 was predicted to rise by 2.3°C (12.9%) under RCP 2.6, 2.6°C (14.3%) under RCP 4.5, and 3.6°C (18.8%) under RCP 8.5 relative to the reference period (1990-2020). Minimum temperatures also increase in the range of 2.2°C (19.9%) under RCP 2.6, 2.9°C (24.9%) under RCP 4.5 and 4.3°C (32.7%) under RCP 8.5. These temperature increases would affect ecosystems, crop production, human health, and many other sectors.