A New Approach to the Maximum Quarterly Water Consumption Modeling on the Example of Individual Water Consumers in a Small Water Supply System

Quarterly water consumption data collected in a small water supply system were used for elaboration of a new water consumption modeling approach. In this paper, multi-distribution statistical analysis was performed. As the Anderson-Darling test proved, at least a half out of the ten tested theoretical probability distributions can be used for description of the water consumption. The application of the PWRMSE criterion made it possible to determine, which of the tested theoretical distributions is the best-fitted to the empirical data set. In the case of total daily water consumption for the group of the households, it was Johnson distribution, whereas for the average daily water consumption per capita, it was GEV distribution. Based on the best-fitted probability distribution, a 25-year water consumption simulation with the Monte Carlo method was conducted. Because methodology of this study is based on the probability distributions, even if the type of theoretical distribution of the water consumption will change, it will be still possible to use this simulation method by assuming the other distribution.