Wpływ światowego kryzysu gospodarczego i finansowego na proces konwergencji realnej w krajach OECD

Opracowanie obejmuje część teoretyczną i praktyczną. Część teoretyczna dotyczy definicji i typów konwergencji, konwergencji w perspektywie historycznej, czynników wpływających na konwergencję, kryzysu finansowego i gospodarczego oraz jego konsekwencji oraz kryzysu w krajach UE należących do OECD i jego wpływu na konwergencję. Część praktyczna opracowania to wyniki badań empirycznych dotyczących występowania procesu konwergencji w krajach OECD w latach 2003-2012.

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This paper analyzes the issue of convergence in OECD countries and tries to assess the effect of financial crisis on the process of convergence. In other words we consider, if the global financial crisis pulled the economies of the organization together or pushed them apart. Looking at the convergence from historical perspective, one can observe only limited extent of this phenomenon. The economic growth in the twentieth century shows the striking divergence instead of convergence. The economists found that convergence was restricted only to the narrow range of North Atlantic countries. But outside the charmed circle there was structural change and economic integration but not convergence. Analyzing the consequences of the global financial and economic crisis on the most developed countries we come to our basic question – what impact has the present crisis on the convergence process among the OECD countries? The experiences from the Great Depression 1929-1932 showed the negative impact on the convergence. It was due to the globalization retreat as well as policy of the countries favouring the autarchy. The present world economy differs essentially from that of the interwar period. The integration processes, capital flows and mass migration fueled the progress of globalization and made the economy far more interdependent. Finally we will try to show, if the present crisis has a similar effect on the convergence process as the Great Depression had 80 years ago. We will analyze the most important macroeconomic data from the period 2007-2012 and use simple econometric model to settle the relationships and in conclusion we show the similarities and differences between these two economic events.