Diagnozowanie, genezowanie i prognozowanie wskaźników bezpieczeństwa.

W pracy opisano metodę diagnozowania stanu, genezowanie i prognozowanie wskaźników bezpieczeństwa w zastosowaniu do problemów bezpieczeństwa lotów. Aplikacją metody może być ocena skuteczności działań profilaktycznych polepszających stan bezpieczeństwa badanego systemu C-T-O.

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A method of condition diagnosing, of finding genesis and forecasting the safety rates has been described in the paper to be then applied to solve the flight safety problems. With the examination of the rates that describe the level of safety as a tool, it is possible to study the trend of their changes against an independent variable, e.g. time, a number of objects, a performace parameter (the distance covered, the number of passengers or the cargo carried). Periodic changes become known. The study is aimed at either finding the causes of favourable changes, or avoiding unfavourable charges by means of effective prevention. A kind of a function closely related with safety has been defined and labelled the accident function (FW). The FW function together with the estimated rates of average losses enable the safety level (as measured with some selected rate, e.g. the number of aircraft/air crew losses) to be estimated - forecasted. The FW function affords possibilities for following the changes in mean values, the long - and the short-term changes, the susceptibility of a selected parameter to changes within some definite time intervals. Correlation methods, interval functions, and trends of parameters relative changes in the logarithmic scale have been applied to the above-mentioned analyses. The method can be applied, e.g. to evaluate preventive actions carried out to improve safety of the C-T-O (Man-Engineering Products-Environment) system.