Stochastic Models Of Emission Of Toxic Compounds In Marine Engines Exhausts

Development of marine transport and projected increase of emission of toxic compounds formed when combusting marine fuels enforces, apart from the emission research, the need of modelling those pollutants dispersion their immission in coastal regions of city agglomerations. The area of Gdansk Bay, just like sea ports or coastal regions, is vulnerable to the effect of pollutants present in exhaust gases coming from industrial plants, power plants, vehicles and vessels. The last source of pollution concerns the vessels both in port areas and in the roads. In order to determine the share of vessels in environmental pollution and counteract the harmful effects of toxic compounds in marine engine exhaust gases, it is necessary to know the emission values of these compounds from particular vessels. This is possible with the knowledge of their movement parameters, concentration values of particular compounds for these parameters and the atmospheric conditions. The first step towards formulating the emission models of toxic compounds in marine engines exhaust gases is determination of mathematical models of vessels movement, which can be later used when formulating dispersion and immission models of those pollutants. In the paper there were presented conditions concerning modelling the emission of toxic compounds in vessels exhausts as well as the possibilities of using the queuing theory and Monte Carlo methods in order to formulate simulated model of vessels movement in a given area.