Dynamic features of successive upwelling events in the Baltic Sea - a numerical case study

Coastal upwelling often reveals itself during the thermal stratification season as an abrupt sea surface temperature (SST) drop. Its intensity depends not only on the magnitude of an upwelling-favourable wind impulse but also on the temperature stratification of the water column during the initial stage of the event. When a "chain" of upwelling events is taking place, one event may play a part in forming the initial stratification for the next one; consequently, SST may drop significantly even with a reduced wind impulse. Two upwelling events were simulated on the Polish coast in August 1996 using a three-dimensional, baroclinic prognostic model. The model results proved to be in good agreement with in situ observations and satellite data. Comparison of the simulated upwelling events show that the first one required a wind impulse of 28000 kg m-1 s-1 to reach its mature, full form, whereas an impulse of only 7500 kg m-1 s-1 was sufficient to bring about a significant drop in SST at the end of the second event. In practical applications like operational modelling, the initial stratification conditions prior to an upwelling event should be described with care in order to be able to simulate the coming event with very good accuracy.