Techniki opisu ryzyka w ocenie efektywności inwestycji

The paper deals with risk and fundamental concepts of measuring risk. The paper examines the key descriptive techniques used in analysing risk in investment appraisal. The article presents: sensitivity analysis, break-even sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulation analysis. The latter is a method for deriving the probability distribution of underlying economic factors. In practice many companies try to solve some of the riskiness of investments by applying sensitivity analysis to the major ingredients of the cash flows. Descriptive techniques are useful tools applied in investment appraisal. These techniques may amplify and enrich the traditional NPV analysis. On the other hand, new developments in the field must be taken into consideration, e.g. application of real options theory or Enterprise-Wide Risk Management concept.