Szacowanie oraz kontrola kosztów i ryzyka w projektach tunelowych i infrastrukturalnych

Niniejsza praca prezentuje niedawno opracowaną metodę zarządzania, szacowania kosztów i ryzyka strat przy złożonych projektach infrastrukturalnych. Opisana jest w niej metodologia lepszego szacowania kosztów tego typu projektów, opracowana przez autora i uzupełniona przez Departament Transportu Stanu Waszyngton.

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This paper presents a recently-developed risk-based method for the estimation and management of cost for complex, infrastructure projects. Chronic problems in estimating realistic cost estimates for complex infrastructure and tunneling projects are referenced. A methodology to better estimate the cost of such projects, developed by the author and others, and implemented by the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), is described. The procedure, called the Cost Estimate Validation Process, or CEVP TM, uses risk and uncertainty methods to structure a project cost estimate to produce a "range of probable cost". The concept incorporates principles similar to those which have been applied to several specialized tunneling projects using risk analysis processes. The procedure has been applied to a set of infrastructure projects in Washington State (USA), estimated at about US $25 billion, and to many smaller projects. The process includes explicit dentification of high-cost and schedule risk drivers - leading to an ability to develop explicit risk management plans early in a project's development, directly from the CEVP TM process. Initial results are favorable, with the first public tender falling within the estimated "range of probable cost".