Monitoring and stochastic modelling of tectonic movements in the Simitli Graben, SW Bulgaria

Clarifying the mechanism of some risky geodynamical processes could be performed using monitoring on the especially chosen sites. The obtained information is useful for studying and predicting of fault and landslide movements. For this purpose, three extensometers, type TM-71, Czech product, had been installed in 1982 at the southern parts of Simitii graben, SW Bulgaria. In the present paper, we present the results obtained by a long-term in-situ monitoring within the period 1984-2000. A stochastic modeling of the results of measurements to clarify some relationships in the behaviour of tectonic movements is applied. During the modeling, it was proposed some competitive programs - ARIMA and TRAMO/SEATS for models of temporary rows. Tendencies in the development of studied processes are established. Correlations between the tectonic movements and the temperature fluctuations are established, too. The adequateness of the models and the effectiveness of the prognoses were made using diagnostic verification of the statistical tests. The experimental investigations were performed using DEMETRA program.