Estimation of uncertainty of natural gas volume loss in the aspect of damage to pipeline transport infrastructure

The analytical dependencies for estimating the uncertainty of the volume of gas lost through damage to the gas pipeline infrastructure are developed in this article. The stage of pseudo-stationary gas leakage is considered and equations for estimating the uncertainty of the gas pressure and temperature at the damage point of the gas pipeline are presented. They are based on the solution of the mathematical model of stationary gas movement in the gas pipeline. An equation for the uncertainty of the gas flow rate through the holes in the damaged gas pipeline is obtained based on the analysis of the gas flow equation as a functional dependence on the gas parameters and characteristics of the leakage. An uncertainty budget is formed for gas pressure and temperature at the damage point and gas flow rate through the damage holes. Formulas for the impact coefficients of the uncertainties of the input parameters on the combined standard uncertainty of these parameters are also developed. An example of the application of the developed equations for estimating the uncertainty of the gas volume lost through damage to the gas transportation network is presented