System Dynamic Model of Risk Element Transmission in Project Chain

It is important to realize that the risk of one project will affect other projects as well. Based on risk element transmission theory, firstly, this paper established a risk element transmission model between two projects by using system dynamics methodology. And then this paper stimulated the variations of the risk element transmission impact when the owner and the contractor hold different risk-sharing ratios. The simulation results indicate that the transmission impact of risk element will enjoy an accelerated growth with the increase of the contractor’s risk-sharing ratio.

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W artykule analizuje się możliwość przenoszenia ryzyka między różnymi projektami. Wprowadzono pojęcie współczynnika przenoszenia ryzyka.