Bezpieczeństwo XXI wieku : konflikty zbrojne

In the article an important change in the character of future military conflicts with relation to prognosis and analysis from the past years is depicted. It can be assumed that as the after-effect of breakthrough in international relationships, a further evolution is taking place, consisting of transition from military threats of high intensity in conditions of great environmental stabilisation, to military threats of low intensity in conditions of low stabilisation of the environment. The possibility of appearance of traditional threats of territorial integrity of the country cannot be excluded, no matter how minimal the risk would be. It should be remembered that the reality of contemporary world is changing quickly. What was unthinkable two decades ago (i.e. the end of communism era, Germany’s unification, USSR’s break-up, disappearance of partition of Europe, using a civilian airplane or other means of transport for terrorists purposes), has become real. It can be assumed that long-term prognostic works concerning the character of military conflicts can also include bigger or smaller mistakes. For this reason it is thought that a country should build and posses security-defense systems (in the aspect of creating opportunities) which would not only be ready for effective reacting against old, but simultaneously new paradigms of threat.