Response of potato biomass and tuber yield under future climate change scenarios in Egypt

FAO AquaCrop model ver. 6.1 was calibrated and validated by means of an independent data sets during the harvesting seasons of 2016/2017 and 2017/2018, at El Noubaria site in western north of Egypt. To assess the impact of the increase in temperature and CO2 concentration on potato biomass and tuber yield simulations, experiments were carried out with four downscaled and bias-corrected of General Circulation Models (GCMs) data sets based on the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) scenarios under demonstrative Concentration Trails (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, selected for 2021–2040 and 2041–2060. The study showed that the model could satisfactorily simulate potato canopy cover, biomass, harvest and soil water content under various irrigation treatments. The biomass and yield decreased for all GCMs in both future series 2030s and 2050s. Biomass reduction varied between 5.60 and 9.95%, while the reduction of the simulated yield varied between 3.53 and 7.96% for 2030. The lowest values of biomass and yield were achieved by HadGEM2-ES under RCP 8.5 with 27.213 and 20.409 Mg∙ha–1, respectively corresponding to –9.95 and –7.96% reduction. The lowest reductions were 5.60 and 3.53% for biomass and yield, respectively, obtained with MIROC5 under RCP 8.5 for 2030. Reductions in biomass and yield in 2050 were higher than in 2030. The results are showing that higher temperatures shortened the growing period based on calculated growing degree days (GDD). Therefore, it is very important to study changing sowing dates to alleviate the impact of climate change by using field trials, simulation and deep learning models.

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Opracowanie rekordu ze środków MNiSW, umowa Nr 461252 w ramach programu "Społeczna odpowiedzialność nauki" - moduł: Popularyzacja nauki i promocja sportu (2021).