Dynamic Vehicle Age-Based Cohort Model to Estimate the Emission from the Transportation Sector in Jakarta

Jakarta had a congestion level of 53% in 2019, ranking 10th among the most traffic jams globally. Therefore, the transportation sector is the largest contributor to air pollution in the special area of the capital city Jakarta (DKI Jakarta). In this study, a vehicle age cohort was analyzed using dynamic models. Several factors, such as emission standards, vehicle speed, as well as fuel quality and type, were included to drive the models. The emission inventory for air pollutants, such as carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC), nitrogen oxides (NOx ), and particulate matter (PM10) can be calculated using this model. The results showed that motorbikes were the major contributor to the increase in the four pollutants in DKI Jakarta from 2007 to 2018 and will still be a significant contributor until 2040. In 2018, the major contributors to CO, HC, NO, and PM10 were motorbikes (52.7%), motorbikes (79.6%), buses (63.9%), and motorbikes (74.7%), respectively. It is predicted that in 2040, using the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, motorbikes will also be the primary contributors of air pollutants (CO, HC, and PM) 70.2%, 91.4%, and 82.9%, respectively. Diesel passenger cars will become a lesser contributor to air pollutants than all vehicles from 2018 to 2040 in DKI Jakarta.